Tampa Bay general manager Jason Licht said Thursday that he expects fewer and fewer teams to make high-risk, high-reward moves in this year’s draft.
“You’re going to see maybe a little less people maybe wanting to move up and offering enough to make it worth your while just because the draft is pretty leveled out at a certain point,” Licht said at his pre-draft press conference, noting that he could be wrong. “You might be able to get the same level of player in the second round as you can in the fourth round at certain positions, so I think you’ll maybe see a little bit less of that.”
If history is written by the victors, the history of the draft is written by teams that draft successfully. Much of the ink goes to teams that trade up for first-round players who become legends.
Sean McVay’s grandfather did a lot of writing. As San Francisco’s vice president of football operations in 1985, John McVay collaborated with Bill Walsh to orchestrate a trade with New England to move up 12 spots in the first round and take Jerry Rice from Mississippi Valley State.
At the time, people thought Walsh and McVay were out of their minds. The 49ers gave up their own choice, 28 overall, along with second- and third-round selections. In addition to Rice, San Francisco also picked up New England’s third-round pick. Critics thought the defending Super Bowl champions overpaid for a player whose name few had heard.
Critics also thought Sean McVay and Les Snead overpaid last year when they traded up to No. 39 in the second round to snag Florida State’s Braden Fiske – the reason why Los Angeles doesn’t own a second-rounder as of now. The Rams gave up that 2025 second-round choice along with the 52nd and 155th overall selections in 2024 to jump up to 39 last April.
Analytics writer Seth Walder called that trade the most expensive Day 2 overpay of at least the last six drafts. Fiske, however, enjoyed one of the best rookie seasons among NFL linemen last year. Time will tell whether he was worth the cost, just as any player drafted after a trade up.
If the Rams feel content to stay put at 26, they could still entertain offers from other teams wanting to move up – and possibly even recoup that second-rounder. They’ve taught a masterclass in how to draft Day 2 and Day 3 selections over the last few years.